Reflections On The UK Election - What This Means For The UK

Image credited to Dave Brown

The UK election held on June 9^th 2017 has proven to be disastrous so far for Conservative leader Theresa May.

The election, called to try to extend on her small majority, actually ended with her scraping to victory with a smaller majority. The upshot is that she has had to seek an alliance with Democratic Unionist Party DUP in order to have a majority to govern and rule.

Quite what this means long term for the United Kingdom remains to be seen. However, in the short term the UK political process is in something of disarray. May, who is widely acknowledge to have run a disastrous election campaign, seems intent on shooting herself in the foot. Just when the United Kingdom needed the ‘strong and stable’ leadership she has promoted throughout her campaign, it finds itself faced with the opposite. May looks weak, an easy target and her party looks in disarray.

The city will be relieved that May has ended up in office rather than the opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn. At least that is something of a positive for UK PLC. However, that is not to say that her natural supporters are overflowing with joy at her economic plans.

The key thing that her government needs try to bring about is stability. This is something that will be difficult to achieve against a background of increasing tensions at home. Certainly, the start of her new Parliament will be characterised by a number of rising tensions from events at home.

The potential deal with the Democratic Unionist Party threatens to open old wounds over the issue of Northern Ireland. While any deal should help to give her a working majority to govern over the term, it threatens alienating many in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein for example, is likely to see this as an alliance with the republican vote in the country and barrier to impartiality in any dealings between the two sides.

The key talks that Mrs May must get head around is the stat of the Brexit negotiations. These are due to start on the 19^th of June. Key topics for discussion are those of trade tariffs and single movement. If quick concessions are made on the budget and the rights of EU citizens to live and work within the UK, then it is conceivable that some form of structure for the agreement could be written up quickly.

One of the sticking issues of any negotiations is likely to be that of immigration. It is imperative o the UK economy that it does not damage itself by limiting migrant workers. Many workers from abroad in the UK are currently looking at the market and deciding what their future may hold.

Whilst many companies will be able to cope with leaving the EU some will find themselves very affected. A lot of the economy needs these workers to be able to function. Large parts of the economy are heavily reliant upon these workers. Any negotiations will need to tread carefully to avoid upsetting these areas of business.  

However perhaps more fundamentally it is important to look at recent events. The fire at Greenock and recent terrorist attacks have place the focus firmly on government responses. In particular, the tragic fire at the Grenfell tower block , resulting in the death of an as yet unspecified number of residents has opened Mrs May up to considerable criticism.

Just when she has been looking to try to create some unity in the country, these events have showed the divisions within UK society to be even deeper than ever. Highly criticised on a personal level for her response to these tragic events, austerity which is blamed as the cause.

Mays detractors are looking to de-stabilase and discredit her at any opportunity that presents itself. Sadly, with increased terror threats, the opportunity to measure and criticise her response is coming thick and fast. She does not come across as a natural empathiser which plays into the hands of her political opponents.

The prime minister has a huge amount to do to win around an already sceptical public. These events have only confounded her task. It is not impossible that she could turn into a successful prime minister. However, she will need to quickly gain support from both her peers and UK business.

While the wider public mood may take longer to turn around, if she can achieve this she will at least be in a position to push her policies forward. The question of course is whether she can deliver on these home. Perhaps more importantly it is the road to a smooth and beneficial Brexit for the UK on which she will ultimately be judged.